The PROLIFICK Blog
Analysis, methods and sports-betting culture.
What the model saw coming — 24 September 2026
111 verified predictions that came true over the last 7 days, from least obvious to most expected: Le Mans – Lorient (35%) on top.
StatistiquesEurope's best defences: Lyon on top — 24 September 2026
The fifteen tightest defences of the five major leagues on 24 September 2026: Lyon have conceded only 2 goals in 5 matches.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 24 September 2026
AI predictions for 24 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 36 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, for subscribers.
JoueursPremier League: E. Haaland top scorer, the scorers and assists charts
Top scorers and assists in the Premier League on 23 September 2026: E. Haaland leads with 5 goals, João Pedro top assist provider.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 23 September 2026
AI predictions for 23 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 40 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, Basketball, Handball, for subscribers.
RésultatsNFL: the week in review Week 2 — 22 September 2026
Every NFL score of the week Week 2: 15 games, the widest margin for Carolina Panthers, the closest game, the highest-scoring.
ClassementsBundesliga table: Borussia Dortmund on top, 22 September 2026
The Bundesliga table on 22 September 2026: Borussia Dortmund lead with 12 points, best attack Bayern München, best defence Borussia Dortmund, form and bottom of the table.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 22 September 2026
AI predictions for 22 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 37 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, Basketball, for subscribers.
RésultatsNFL: the week in review Week 2 — 21 September 2026
Every NFL score of the week Week 2: 15 games, the widest margin for Carolina Panthers, the closest game, the highest-scoring.
RésultatsThe weekend review — 20 September 2026
Every weekend result in Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the European cups: 48 matches, 10 draws, the widest wins and the clean sheets.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 21 September 2026
AI predictions for 21 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 25 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, for subscribers.
RésultatsWhat the model saw coming — 20 September 2026
102 verified predictions that came true over the last 7 days, from least obvious to most expected: Le Mans – Lorient (35%) on top.
ClassementsConference League table: Aarhus on top, 20 September 2026
The Conference League table on 20 September 2026: Aarhus lead with 0 points, best attack Aarhus, best defence Aarhus, form and bottom of the table.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 20 September 2026
AI predictions for 20 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 84 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, for subscribers.
Avant-matchThe weekend programme: 43 matches — 19 September 2026
Every weekend fixture in Ligue 1, Premier League, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga and the European cups, with the model's probabilities.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 19 September 2026
AI predictions for 19 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 68 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, for subscribers.
TendancesIn-form teams and players: Barcelona, Raphinha — 18 September 2026
The teams on a run over their last five matches across the five major leagues, Barcelona on top, and the in-form scorers in the La Liga.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 18 September 2026
AI predictions for 18 September 2026: the verified record of all of yesterday's calls, and 83 matches selected today in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, for subscribers.
RésultatsWhat the model saw coming — 17 September 2026
55 verified predictions that came true over the last 7 days, from least obvious to most expected: Lecce – Monza (38%) on top.
StatistiquesEurope's best defences: AS Roma on top — 17 September 2026
The fifteen tightest defences of the five major leagues on 17 September 2026: AS Roma have conceded only 1 goals in 4 matches.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 17 September 2026
AI predictions for 17 September 2026: the 15 most confident calls in Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, with probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. Yesterday's verified record.
JoueursLigue 1: K. Doumbia top scorer, the scorers and assists charts
Top scorers and assists in the Ligue 1 on 16 September 2026: K. Doumbia leads with 4 goals, P. Katseris top assist provider.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 16 September 2026
AI predictions for 16 September 2026: the 12 most confident calls in Football, Tennis, Basketball, with probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. Yesterday's verified record.
RésultatsNFL: the week in review Week 1 — 15 September 2026
Every NFL score of the week Week 1: 15 games, the widest margin for Jacksonville Jaguars, the closest game, the highest-scoring.
ClassementsSerie A table: AS Roma on top, 15 September 2026
The Serie A table on 15 September 2026: AS Roma lead with 12 points, best attack Inter, best defence AS Roma, form and bottom of the table.
Prédictions du jourToday's predictions — 15 September 2026
AI predictions for 15 September 2026: the 10 most confident calls in Football, Tennis, Basketball, with probabilities, expected goals and likely scores. Yesterday's verified record.
Résultats2026 Women's Basketball World Cup: the United States beat France in the final (97-79)
In Berlin, the United States win the 2026 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup, beating France 97-79 in the final. The game quarter by quarter, and what the model takes from it.
RésultatsNFL : le bilan de la semaine Week 1 — 14 septembre 2026
Tous les scores de la semaine NFL Week 1 : 15 rencontres, le plus large écart pour Jacksonville Jaguars, le match le plus serré, le plus prolifique.
RésultatsLe bilan du week-end — 13 septembre 2026
Tous les résultats du week-end en Ligue 1, Premier League, Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga et coupes d'Europe : 43 rencontres, 16 nuls, les plus larges victoires et les défenses inviolées.
Prédictions du jourLes prédictions du jour — 14 septembre 2026
Prédictions IA du 14 septembre 2026 : les 15 rencontres les plus sûres en Football, Tennis, Basketball, Handball, avec probabilités, buts attendus et scores probables. Bilan vérifié de la veille.
Prédictions du jourLes prédictions du jour — 13 septembre 2026
Prédictions IA du 13 septembre 2026 : les 13 rencontres les plus sûres en Football, Tennis, NFL, Basketball, avec probabilités, buts attendus et scores probables. Bilan vérifié de la veille.
Value betting: the one thing that separates winners from losers
Most bettors lose because they bet on the wrong thing. Here is what value really means — the actual secret of profitable bettors.
SaisonnierRoland-Garros 2026 : Zverev sacré, ce que nos modèles avaient vu (et pas vu)
Roland-Garros 2026 est terminé, et le vainqueur a surpris tout le monde. Retour sur le tournoi et sur ce que nos modèles avaient anticipé — une belle leçon de probabilités.
SaisonnierGiro 2026 : Vingegaard entre dans l'histoire (retour sur la course)
Le Giro 2026 a livré un verdict historique. Retour sur la course et sur ce que nos modèles avaient anticipé — là où le vélo devient (un peu) prévisible.
SaisonnierPlayoffs NBA 2026 : le sacre fou des Knicks (retour sur les Finales)
Les playoffs NBA 2026 resteront dans les mémoires. Retour sur le sacre des Knicks après 53 ans d'attente — et sur ce que le format en sept matchs nous rappelle.
TechniqueBacktesting: how to know whether a strategy really works
"My method works." Every bettor thinks so. Backtesting is the only way to actually check. Here is how — and the traps that fool everyone.
TechniqueWhy bookmakers nearly always win (and how to beat them)
Bookmakers keep 5 to 10% of every euro staked, whatever the results. That is not luck. Here is their trick — and how to turn it around.
TechniqueSimple model or complicated AI: which one predicts better?
To predict a match, do you need a small simple model or a big fashionable AI? We tested both. Here is what we learned, without the jargon.
TechniquePoisson: predicting football scores with a formula
How many goals in the next Real–Barça? A mathematical law does remarkably well. Here is how scorelines get predicted, without a crystal ball.
TechniqueThe Kelly criterion: how much to stake without blowing up
A formula from 1956, used by professional bettors and fund managers, that turns an edge into an amount — and stops one bad run from ending everything.
TechniqueELO: the rating that says who will win, and why it works
How to put a number on a team's strength, where the rating comes from, what it does well — and what it cannot see.