Of the 68 predictions settled over the last 7 days, 55 came true. The interesting ones are not the ones everybody expected: Lecce – Monza, in Football, where the model gave Lecce a 38% chance — and that is what happened (3-2).

The verified calls, from least obvious to most expected

  • Lecce – Monza (Football, Serie A) — predicted: Lecce, at only 38%. Result: 3-2.
  • Venezia – Fiorentina (Football, Serie A) — predicted: Fiorentina, at only 40%. Result: 2-4.
  • 1899 Hoffenheim – VfB Stuttgart (Football, Bundesliga) — predicted: 1899 Hoffenheim, at only 42%. Result: 2-1.
  • SC Freiburg – Borussia Mönchengladbach (Football, Bundesliga) — predicted: SC Freiburg, at only 44%. Result: 5-0.
  • Leeds – Newcastle (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Leeds, at only 47%. Result: 4-1.
  • Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Atletico Madrid, at only 47%. Result: 0-3.
  • Manchester United – Manchester City (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Manchester City, at only 47%. Result: 0-1.
  • Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Rayo Vallecano, at only 52%. Result: 2-1.
  • Chelsea – Hull City (Football, Premier League) — predicted: the draw, at only 52%. Result: 2-2.
  • Rennes – Marseille (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Rennes, at only 52%. Result: 1-0.
  • Sevilla – Valencia (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Sevilla, at only 54%. Result: 1-0.
  • Coventry – Brighton (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Brighton, at only 54%. Result: 0-5.

Why we also publish the misses

A 55% call is wrong forty-five times out of a hundred: that is the rule of the game, not a flaw. What matters is that the announced frequency matches the observed frequency over time. Every call is locked before kick-off, judged afterwards, and the full record — hits and misses — is in today's predictions.

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