Of the 180 predictions settled over the last 7 days, 111 came true. The interesting ones are not the ones everybody expected: Le Mans – Lorient, in Football, where the model gave Le Mans a 35% chance — and that is what happened (2-1).

The verified calls, from least obvious to most expected

  • Le Mans – Lorient (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Le Mans, at only 35%. Result: 2-1.
  • Valencia – Real Sociedad (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Real Sociedad, at only 36%. Result: 2-3.
  • Real Sociedad – Bournemouth (Football, UEFA Europa League) — predicted: Bournemouth, at only 39%. Result: 1-2.
  • Levski Sofia – Red Bull Salzburg (Football, UEFA Europa League) — predicted: Red Bull Salzburg, at only 42%. Result: 0-1.
  • Bournemouth – Liverpool (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Liverpool, at only 46%. Result: 0-1.
  • Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg (Football, Bundesliga) — predicted: Werder Bremen, at only 46%. Result: 3-2.
  • Venezia – Lazio (Football, Serie A) — predicted: Lazio, at only 53%. Result: 0-2.
  • Lyon – Rennes (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Lyon, at 55%. Result: 4-0.
  • Angers – Estac Troyes (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Angers, at 55%. Result: 2-0.
  • Getafe – Malaga (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Getafe, at 58%. Result: 1-0.
  • Nottingham Forest – Coventry (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Coventry, at 59%. Result: 0-1.
  • Bristol City – Watford (Football, Championship) — predicted: Bristol City, at 60%. Result: 1-0.

Why we also publish the misses

A 55% call is wrong forty-five times out of a hundred: that is the rule of the game, not a flaw. What matters is that the announced frequency matches the observed frequency over time. Every call is locked before kick-off, judged afterwards, and the full record — hits and misses — is in today's predictions.

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