Of the 149 predictions settled over the last 7 days, 102 came true. The interesting ones are not the ones everybody expected: Le Mans – Lorient, in Football, where the model gave Le Mans a 35% chance — and that is what happened (2-1).

The verified calls, from least obvious to most expected

  • Le Mans – Lorient (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Le Mans, at only 35%. Result: 2-1.
  • Lecce – Monza (Football, Serie A) — predicted: Lecce, at only 38%. Result: 3-2.
  • Real Sociedad – Bournemouth (Football, UEFA Europa League) — predicted: Bournemouth, at only 39%. Result: 1-2.
  • Levski Sofia – Red Bull Salzburg (Football, UEFA Europa League) — predicted: Red Bull Salzburg, at only 42%. Result: 0-1.
  • Werder Bremen – FC Augsburg (Football, Bundesliga) — predicted: Werder Bremen, at only 46%. Result: 3-2.
  • Leeds – Newcastle (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Leeds, at only 47%. Result: 4-1.
  • Real Sociedad – Atletico Madrid (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Atletico Madrid, at only 47%. Result: 0-3.
  • Manchester United – Manchester City (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Manchester City, at only 47%. Result: 0-1.
  • Rayo Vallecano – Espanyol (Football, La Liga) — predicted: Rayo Vallecano, at only 52%. Result: 2-1.
  • Venezia – Lazio (Football, Serie A) — predicted: Lazio, at only 53%. Result: 0-2.
  • Coventry – Brighton (Football, Premier League) — predicted: Brighton, at only 54%. Result: 0-5.
  • Lyon – Rennes (Football, Ligue 1) — predicted: Lyon, at 55%. Result: 4-0.

Why we also publish the misses

A 55% call is wrong forty-five times out of a hundred: that is the rule of the game, not a flaw. What matters is that the announced frequency matches the observed frequency over time. Every call is locked before kick-off, judged afterwards, and the full record — hits and misses — is in today's predictions.

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